Transcript[]
|
Recommendation: Against Prediction From: 孙昊天 <sun@avalon.avalon> |
| When we talk about the future, are we speculating or are we predicting? The distinction isn’t always so clear. Statistical methods appear to introduce some precision into this imprecise art, but often fail to question fundamental assumptions that later prove to be untrue.
Despite the sensationalist title, AGAINST PREDICTION by Richard Kendall-Fay is an important argument in this vein. We should not be trying to predict the future-- we should be inventing it. With many revolutionary technologies developed here in Avalon City already, not to mention even more radically world-altering projects in the works, we are the clearest demonstration yet that a statistical approach to prediction is simply unworkable. The future is not a continuation of any trend line. It cannot be found inside any normal distribution. The future is an outlier. Sun Haotian | |